A.J. Dillon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 1:26 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+175/-240).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +240 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +175.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
A.J. Dillon has gone out for more passes this year (41.2% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (30.4%).
The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Detroit Lions linebackers project as the 7th-worst LB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Detroit Lions pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 6th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 6th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
A.J. Dillon's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 92.2% to 77.4%.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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