A.J. Dillon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 8:36 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-190/+145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -190.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a massive 7.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
A.J. Dillon has been more involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (41.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (30.4%).
The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Miami Dolphins linebackers rank as the worst unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
A.J. Dillon's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 92.2% to 78.5%.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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