A.J. Dillon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:21 AM EST

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+114/-152).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -151 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -152.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has surrendered the 9th-highest Completion% in the league (84.7%) to running backs this year (84.7%).
The Green Bay Packers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the league), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 30.07 seconds per play.
The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
A.J. Dillon's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 92.2% to 74.2%.
The Philadelphia Eagles linebackers rank as the 9th-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has given their QB a measly 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.

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