A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
A.J. Dillon has run a route on 46.3% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 78th percentile among running backs.
A.J. Dillon's receiving effectiveness has gotten better this season, notching 6.30 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a mere 5.34 rate last season.
The Vikings pass defense has yielded the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (85.3%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (85.3%).

Favors Under

The Green Bay Packers have called the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 53.2 plays per game.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to pass too much against the Vikings, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 34.0 per game) this year.
A.J. Dillon's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 71.2% to 58.1%.
The Minnesota Vikings defense has given up the 3rd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 20.0) vs. running backs this year.
The Vikings safeties rank as the 3rd-best unit in the league this year in defending receivers.

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