A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 4, 2023

Updated Sep 29, 2023 12:01 AM EST

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-115/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Green Bay Packers to be the 10th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 62.7% pass rate.
Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and reduced ground volume.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.
The Packers O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Lions linebackers grade out as the 5th-worst LB corps in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Packers to run the 6th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers have run the 7th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 56.0 plays per game.
A.J. Dillon has been one of the least sure-handed receivers in football when it comes to RBs, hauling in just 71.6% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 12th percentile.
The Detroit Lions defense has allowed the fewest receiving yards per game in football (just 22.0) versus RBs since the start of last season.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has surrendered the 10th-lowest Completion% in football (79.6%) vs. running backs since the start of last season (79.6%).