A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-127/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Dillon to garner 3.8 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
A.J. Dillon has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL among running backs, hauling in just 70.9% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 12th percentile.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has given up the 8th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 27.0) versus running backs since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has performed very well when opposing running backs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.34 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-least in the league.
The Atlanta Falcons safeties project as the best group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.