My Account Log Out

reorder

A.J. Dillon

A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Green Bay Packers vs Kansas City Chiefs

A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is indicated by the Packers being a -5.5-point underdog in this game.

The predictive model expects the Green Bay Packers as the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

With an exceptional 43.9% Route% (77th percentile) this year, A.J. Dillon places among the pass-catching RBs with the most usage in the league.

A.J. Dillon's ball-catching skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 71.3% to 81.4%.

A.J. Dillon's receiving effectiveness has been refined this year, accumulating 7.54 adjusted yards-per-target vs a measly 5.33 rate last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Packers are predicted by the predictive model to call only 64.0 total plays in this contest: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.

The 8th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Packers this year (a lowly 55.5 per game on average).

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.

The Kansas City Chiefs defense has surrendered the fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 20.0) versus running backs this year.

This year, the fierce Chiefs defense has given up the 3rd-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing running backs: a feeble 4.8 yards.

More A.J. Dillon Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™