A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 1:26 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is indicated by the Packers being a -5.5-point underdog in this game.
The predictive model expects the Green Bay Packers as the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
With an exceptional 43.9% Route% (77th percentile) this year, A.J. Dillon places among the pass-catching RBs with the most usage in the league.
A.J. Dillon's ball-catching skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 71.3% to 81.4%.
A.J. Dillon's receiving effectiveness has been refined this year, accumulating 7.54 adjusted yards-per-target vs a measly 5.33 rate last year.

Favors Under

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Packers are predicted by the predictive model to call only 64.0 total plays in this contest: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The 8th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Packers this year (a lowly 55.5 per game on average).
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has surrendered the fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 20.0) versus running backs this year.
This year, the fierce Chiefs defense has given up the 3rd-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing running backs: a feeble 4.8 yards.

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