A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 10th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.8% pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Detroit Lions linebackers project as the worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Detroit Lions pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-slowest in football since the start of last season.
The Green Bay Packers have utilized some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

The Packers are a heavy 10.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
A.J. Dillon has accumulated substantially fewer receiving yards per game (12.0) this year than he did last year (18.0).
A.J. Dillon's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 92.2% to 74.2%.
A.J. Dillon's pass-catching effectiveness has tailed off this year, totaling a measly 4.84 yards-per-target vs a 8.53 rate last year.

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