A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 11:31 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+100/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a giant 10.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 67.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has given up the 8th-highest Completion% in football (86.1%) to running backs this year (86.1%).
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box against opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
A.J. Dillon has posted quite a few less receiving yards per game (12.0) this year than he did last year (18.0).
A.J. Dillon's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 92.2% to 72.6%.
A.J. Dillon's pass-catching effectiveness has worsened this year, averaging a measly 4.61 yards-per-target vs a 8.53 figure last year.
A.J. Dillon's skills in grinding out extra yardage have worsened this season, totaling a measly 6.69 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 8.68 mark last season.

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