A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Green Bay Packers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 10th-most pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.3% pass rate.
The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 61.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Dillon to garner 2.9 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
A.J. Dillon has been an integral part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 9.0% this year, which ranks him in the 79th percentile among RBs.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency versus RBs this year, giving up 6.94 yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-most in the league.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
A.J. Dillon's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 92.2% to 73.0%.
A.J. Dillon's pass-catching efficiency has worsened this year, compiling a measly 4.59 yards-per-target compared to a 8.53 figure last year.

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