A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

A.J. Dillon has been among the top pass-game running backs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 18.0 yards per game while ranking in the 80th percentile.
The New England Patriots defense has conceded the 3rd-most receiving yards per game in football (48.0) vs. running backs since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots pass defense has yielded the 9th-highest Completion% in the league (83.6%) versus running backs since the start of last season (83.6%).
The New England Patriots pass defense has shown bad efficiency versus RBs since the start of last season, surrendering 7.23 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-most in the NFL.
The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Packers are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 11th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a measly 58.4 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.
A.J. Dillon has compiled a meager 0.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 21st percentile among running backs.

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