A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Dillon to notch 3.4 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
A.J. Dillon has been among the leading pass-game RBs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 19.0 yards per game while ranking in the 81st percentile.
A.J. Dillon has been among the best running backs in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging an impressive 8.88 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 86th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 119.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
A.J. Dillon's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 92.1% to 77.1%.
A.J. Dillon's pass-catching efficiency has tailed off this season, totaling a measly 7.10 yards-per-target compared to a 8.55 rate last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the 4th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.