A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -108 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
A.J. Dillon has gone out for more passes this year (41.2% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (30.4%).
The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Detroit Lions linebackers project as the 7th-worst LB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Detroit Lions pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 6th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 6th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
A.J. Dillon's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 92.2% to 77.4%.
A.J. Dillon's receiving efficiency has worsened this year, notching a measly 5.83 yards-per-target vs a 8.51 rate last year.
A.J. Dillon's skills in picking up extra yardage have declined this year, averaging a mere 7.57 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 8.68 mark last year.

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