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A.J. Dillon

A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers

A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-110/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Packers are a massive 7.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

Opposing teams have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.

A.J. Dillon has been more involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (41.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (30.4%).

The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.

The Miami Dolphins defense has conceded the most receiving yards per game in the NFL (46.0) vs. RBs this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

A.J. Dillon's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 92.2% to 78.5%.

A.J. Dillon's pass-catching effectiveness has diminished this season, accumulating just 6.06 yards-per-target compared to a 8.51 figure last season.

The Miami Dolphins pass defense has performed very well when opposing RBs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.77 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in the NFL.

The Green Bay Packers O-line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

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