A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:51 AM EST

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the league), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 30.07 seconds per play.
The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
A.J. Dillon has put up significantly fewer receiving yards per game (10.0) this year than he did last year (18.0).
A.J. Dillon's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 92.2% to 74.2%.
A.J. Dillon's pass-game effectiveness has declined this year, compiling a mere 4.80 yards-per-target vs a 8.53 figure last year.

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