A.J. Dillon Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Carries

Las Vegas Raiders vs Green Bay Packers · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 10, 2023 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast A.J. Dillon to garner 13.4 rush attempts in this contest, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among RBs.
After taking on 42.2% of his team's rush attempts last season, A.J. Dillon has been more involved in the rushing attack this season, currently accounting for 52.7%.
The Green Bay Packers O-line ranks as the 6th-best in football last year in run-blocking.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Green Bay Packers to be the least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 36.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Packers to run the fewest total plays among all teams this week with 61.1 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Packers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.0 plays per game.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
Raiders defensive ends grade out as the 6th-best collection of DEs in football this year in regard to stopping the run.

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