A.J. Dillon Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Carries

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 4, 2023

Updated Sep 29, 2023 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+124/-158).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ +124.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers O-line profiles as the 6th-best in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Packers to be the 10th-least run-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 37.3% run rate.
The projections expect the Packers to run the 6th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers have run the 7th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 56.0 plays per game.
Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and reduced ground volume.
The model projects A.J. Dillon to be a much smaller part of his team's running game in this week's contest (39.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (55.6% in games he has played).

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