A.J. Dillon Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Carries

Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 7:21 PM EST

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-111/-123).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -103 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects A.J. Dillon to total 14.1 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Dillon to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack this week (60.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (42.1% in games he has played).
The Green Bay Packers O-line grades out as the 6th-best in football since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 8th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 38.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Atlanta Falcons safeties profile as the 9th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

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