A.J. Dillon Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 13

My Account Log Out

reorder

A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Carries

Green Bay Packers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-108/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week, A.J. Dillon is anticipated by the projection model to land in the 85th percentile among RBs with 15.6 rush attempts.
The projections expect A.J. Dillon to be a more integral piece of his offense's running game in this game (62.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (50.4% in games he has played).
As it relates to run support (and the significance it has on all run game statistics), the O-line of the Packers profiles as the 6th-best in the NFL last year.
The Kansas City Chiefs safeties profile as the 31st-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

A passing game script is indicated by the Packers being a -5.5-point underdog in this game.
Our trusted projections expect the Packers as the 6th-least run-focused team on the slate this week with a 39.4% run rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Packers are predicted by the predictive model to call only 64.0 total plays in this contest: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The 8th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Packers this year (a lowly 55.5 per game on average).

More A.J. Dillon Props Data by WriteNow™

About WriteNow