A.J. Dillon Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Carries

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 24, 2023 3:06 AM EST

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (+110/-143).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In this contest, A.J. Dillon is expected by the model to slot into the 86th percentile when it comes to running backs with 15.7 carries.
The model projects A.J. Dillon to be a much smaller piece of his offense's run game in this week's game (35.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (48.7% in games he has played).
The Packers offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in football last year at blocking for rushers.

Favors Under

An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Packers being a huge -8.5-point underdog in this game.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Packers to run on 35.7% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects the Packers to call the 2nd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 9th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Packers this year (a lowly 56.1 per game on average).
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.

More A.J. Dillon Props Data by WriteNow™

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