A.J. Dillon Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Carries

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 19, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to see 131.1 total plays called: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in the NFL last year at blocking for the run game.
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Los Angeles's collection of DEs has been atrocious this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in the league. in the league.

Favors Under

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Packers are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Green Bay Packers to run on 40.6% of their chances: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The Green Bay Packers have run the 7th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 55.1 plays per game.
While A.J. Dillon has garnered 48.7% of his team's run game usage in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a much smaller piece of Green Bay's run game in this week's game at 36.0%.

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