A.J. Dillon Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Carries

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Dillon to notch 13.4 carries in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile among running backs.
A.J. Dillon has received 52.2% of his offense's carries this year, ranking in the 85th percentile among running backs.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 9th-least run-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 36.9% run rate.
The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a measly 58.4 plays per game.
The New England Patriots defensive tackles rank as the 5th-best unit in the league since the start of last season with their run defense.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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