A.J. Dillon Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Carries

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-106/-129).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A.J. Dillon has earned 53.3% of his offense's carries this year, ranking in the 85th percentile among running backs.
The Green Bay Packers O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 5th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 37.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 119.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties project as the 2nd-best safety corps in football since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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