A.J. Dillon Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Carries

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 11:45 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a big 10-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Dillon to garner 11.7 carries in this game, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile among RBs.
A.J. Dillon has received 47.8% of his offense's carries since the start of last season, ranking in the 80th percentile among RBs.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
The Chicago Bears linebackers grade out as the 2nd-worst collection of LBs in football since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 4th-least run-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 34.8% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

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