A.J. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 22

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NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 22, 2024

Updated Feb 9, 2025 6:06 PM EST

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+130/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 59.4 plays per game.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.
In this week's game, A.J. Brown is forecasted by our trusted projection set to finish in the 100th percentile among WRs with 9.6 targets.
A.J. Brown's 86.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 77.6.
A.J. Brown ranks as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL, hauling in a fantastic 71.2% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 77th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 51.0% of their plays: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Eagles are anticipated by the model to call only 67.4 offensive plays in this contest: the fewest among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Chiefs defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
A.J. Brown's pass-catching performance declined this season, averaging just 4.2 adjusted receptions compared to 6.2 last season.