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A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 21

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders

A.J. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-156/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -103 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -156.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast this game to have the smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 59.6 plays per game.

The projections expect A.J. Brown to total 8.1 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among WRs.

A.J. Brown's 86.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 77.6.

A.J. Brown rates as one of the best possession receivers in football, completing an outstanding 71.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 75th percentile among wide receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 6-point advantage, the Eagles are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on running than their typical approach.

The projections expect the Eagles as the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 45.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to test the pass defense of the Commanders, totaling the fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 25.9 per game) this year.

A.J. Brown's 4.5 adjusted catches per game this year indicates a substantial regression in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 6.2 figure.

This year, the fierce Commanders defense has allowed a paltry 62.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 7th-lowest rate in football.

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