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A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys

A.J. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +108 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Eagles will be rolling with backup quarterback Kenny Pickett this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Eagles are forecasted by the model to run 67.0 offensive plays in this game: the 8th-most among all teams this week.

The Eagles have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 60.1 plays per game.

This week, A.J. Brown is predicted by our trusted projection set to slot into the 94th percentile among wide receivers with 9.2 targets.

A.J. Brown has been a much bigger part of his offense's air attack this year (37.6% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (31.4%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Eagles are a massive favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard game plan.

The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 44.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) typically prompt decreased passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and increased ground volume.

Opposing teams have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game versus the Cowboys defense this year: 5th-fewest in football.

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