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A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles

A.J. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+110/-143).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -137 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -143.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 8th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Eagles this year (a staggering 59.6 per game on average).

The model projects A.J. Brown to earn 8.6 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 88th percentile among WRs.

A.J. Brown's 88.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 77.6.

The Philadelphia O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.

A.J. Brown's sure-handedness have improved this season, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 69.7% to 74.8%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Eagles, who are favored by 4 points.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Eagles to pass on 46.6% of their chances: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are expected by the model to run only 64.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-fewest on the slate this week.

Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Washington Commanders, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (just 30.6 per game) this year.

A.J. Brown's 5.1 adjusted catches per game this year shows a substantial decline in his receiving proficiency over last year's 6.2 mark.

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