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A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Philadelphia Eagles vs Pittsburgh Steelers

A.J. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) usually correlate with better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced run volume.

The projections expect A.J. Brown to accrue 9.3 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 92nd percentile among WRs.

A.J. Brown's 89.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 77.6.

In regards to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Philadelphia Eagles ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.

A.J. Brown's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 69.7% to 74.1%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a running game script.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Eagles to pass on 46.8% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.

The predictive model expects the Eagles offense to be the 5th-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 28.99 seconds per snap.

A.J. Brown's 4.8 adjusted catches per game this season marks a meaningful reduction in his receiving skills over last season's 6.2 rate.

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