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A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Baltimore Ravens vs Philadelphia Eagles

A.J. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-168/+128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -148 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -168.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Eagles are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.

The 7th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Eagles this year (a monstrous 60.4 per game on average).

Opposing teams have averaged 41.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Ravens defense this year: most in football.

In this contest, A.J. Brown is predicted by the projection model to find himself in the 98th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 10.2 targets.

A.J. Brown's 91.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 77.6.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Eagles as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 51.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are predicted by the model to run just 63.4 total plays in this contest: the 6th-fewest among all teams this week.

A.J. Brown's 4.9 adjusted catches per game this year conveys a meaningful decline in his receiving ability over last year's 6.2 figure.

The Ravens safeties project as the 3rd-best group of safeties in the league this year in regard to rushing the passer.

More A.J. Brown Player Props

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