A.J. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:51 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-166/+130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ +128 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles offensive approach to skew 1.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Brian Johnson now calling the plays.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
This week, A.J. Brown is anticipated by the predictive model to place in the 95th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 9.9 targets.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point rise in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, A.J. Brown has been more prominently relied on in his offense's passing game.
In regards to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Philadelphia Eagles ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 28.64 seconds per snap.
Opposing QBs have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
The Cowboys pass defense has given up the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (53%) vs. wideouts this year (53.0%).
As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Dallas's group of CBs has been one of the most skilled this year, projecting as the 8th-best in the NFL.