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A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants

A.J. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-156/+122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -158 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -156.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

To the extent of a defense's impact on pace, at 27.47 seconds per play, the model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 5th-fastest in the league (adjusted for context) right now.

In this contest, A.J. Brown is forecasted by our trusted projection set to land in the 94th percentile among wide receivers with 9.0 targets.

A.J. Brown's 79.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 70.9.

When talking about pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Eagles ranks as the best in the NFL this year.

A.J. Brown's 6.9 adjusted catches per game this season marks a material growth in his pass-catching skills over last season's 5.2 figure.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 14-point advantage, the Eagles are overwhelmingly favored this week, suggesting much more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.

The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 48.1% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

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