A.J. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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A.J. Brown

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-160/+124).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +124 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +124.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 138.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 3rd-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 66.0 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 42.2 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
A.J. Brown has been used less as a potential target this season (91.2% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (77.9%).

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 49.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (57.6%) vs. wide receivers this year (57.6%).
The Dallas Cowboys safeties grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Dallas Cowboys pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season.

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