A.J. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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A.J. Brown

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+130/-160).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to call the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 63.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to total 7.3 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile among wide receivers.
A.J. Brown's 72.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the league: 98th percentile for wideouts.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
A.J. Brown has been among the best WRs in the game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 4.8 receptions per game while ranking in the 89th percentile.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 47.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

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