A.J. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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A.J. Brown

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:36 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+128/-167).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -141 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -167.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
A.J. Brown has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (90.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (78.7%).
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to accumulate 8.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 88th percentile among wideouts.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass game stats across the board.
A.J. Brown has been among the top pass-catching WRs this year, averaging an impressive 5.1 receptions per game while grading out in the 87th percentile.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 49.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense this year: 5th-least in football.
The New York Giants pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.1%) versus wideouts this year (63.1%).
The New York Giants have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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