A.J. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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A.J. Brown

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Tennessee Titans · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM EST

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+118/-149).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -149.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.2 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in football.
A.J. Brown has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (90.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (78.7%).
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to notch 8.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among WRs.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all air attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 51.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans safeties project as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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