A.J. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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A.J. Brown

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 15, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+150/-180).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run out of all the games this week at 132.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 61.6 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
A.J. Brown has been used less as a potential target this year (91.1% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (77.9%).
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to accrue 8.6 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a giant 11.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 49.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.2 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense this year: least in football.
The Washington Commanders safeties profile as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.

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