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A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 19

Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers

A.J. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 80.5 (-125/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 84.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 80.5 @ -109.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Eagles will be rolling out backup QB Tanner McKee this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are forecasted by the model to run 67.7 plays on offense in this contest: the highest number among all teams this week.

The Eagles have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 60.1 plays per game.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while rush volume may slide.

The model projects A.J. Brown to earn 9.2 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a running game script.

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Eagles to pass on 46.6% of their downs: the lowest rate on the slate this week.

A.J. Brown has posted quite a few less air yards this year (95.0 per game) than he did last year (116.0 per game).

This year, the daunting Green Bay Packers defense has surrendered a puny 124.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wide receivers: the 4th-fewest in the NFL.

The Green Bay Packers pass defense has displayed good efficiency vs. wide receivers this year, conceding 7.82 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-fewest in the league.

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