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A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Philadelphia Eagles vs Pittsburgh Steelers

A.J. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 81.5 (-129/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 77.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 81.5 @ -129.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) usually correlate with better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced run volume.

The projections expect A.J. Brown to accrue 9.3 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 92nd percentile among WRs.

A.J. Brown's 89.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 77.6.

In regards to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Philadelphia Eagles ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.

A.J. Brown comes in as one of the leading WRs in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 79.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 97th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a running game script.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Eagles to pass on 46.8% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.

The predictive model expects the Eagles offense to be the 5th-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 28.99 seconds per snap.

After accumulating 116.0 air yards per game last season, A.J. Brown has undergone a big decline this season, now boasting 92.0 per game.

More A.J. Brown Player Props

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