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A.J. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 78.5 (-114/-114).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 78.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 78.5 @ -114.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Eagles are projected by the model to run 65.9 total plays in this game: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 59.4 plays per game.The projections expect A.J. Brown to accumulate 7.9 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 84th percentile among wideouts.A.J. Brown's 92.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 77.6.A.J. Brown rates as one of the top WRs in the game this year, averaging a terrific 82.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 97th percentile.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Eagles are a big 14-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Eagles to pass on 42.9% of their plays: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.After averaging 116.0 air yards per game last season, A.J. Brown has fallen off this season, currently sitting at 99.0 per game.This year, the fierce Carolina Panthers pass defense has surrendered the 10th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing wide receivers: a puny 3.9 YAC.
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