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A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 9

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys

A.J. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 86.5 (-139/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 79.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 86.5 @ -139.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles offensive approach to skew 1.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Brian Johnson now calling the plays.

The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

This week, A.J. Brown is anticipated by the predictive model to place in the 95th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 9.9 targets.

After averaging 104.0 air yards per game last season, A.J. Brown has seen marked improvement this season, currently averaging 135.0 per game.

With a RATE1-RATE2 point rise in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, A.J. Brown has been more prominently relied on in his offense's passing game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Eagles are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.

The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 28.64 seconds per snap.

Opposing QBs have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: fewest in the NFL.

The Cowboys defense has surrendered the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 117.0) to wide receivers this year.

The Cowboys pass defense has given up the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (53%) vs. wideouts this year (53.0%).

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