A.J. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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A.J. Brown

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 19, 2023 1:16 AM EST

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 80.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 82.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 80.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (37.5 per game) this year.
In this game, A.J. Brown is forecasted by the predictive model to finish in the 95th percentile among wideouts with 9.3 targets.
After averaging 104.0 air yards per game last season, A.J. Brown has posted big gains this season, now pacing 121.0 per game.
A.J. Brown's 79.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 70.9.
The Philadelphia O-line grades out as the best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Favors Under

A passing game script is indicated by the Eagles being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
The predictive model expects the Eagles to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 50.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Eagles offense to be the most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 28.45 seconds per play.

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