A.J. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

My Account Log Out

reorder

A.J. Brown

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Buffalo Bills · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 84.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 82.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 84.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are forecasted by the predictive model to run 66.5 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.
The 5th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Philadelphia Eagles this year (a staggering 61.3 per game on average).
In this game, A.J. Brown is anticipated by the model to land in the 94th percentile among WRs with 10.0 targets.
After accumulating 104.0 air yards per game last season, A.J. Brown has seen a big uptick this season, currently averaging 126.0 per game.
A.J. Brown's 79.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 70.9.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Eagles to be the 9th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 33.9 per game) this year.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.02 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
As it relates to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Buffalo's group of CBs has been fantastic this year, grading out as the 6th-best in football.

More A.J. Brown Props Data by WriteNow™

About WriteNow