A.J. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 21, 2023 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 82.5 (-129/-106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 83.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 82.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects A.J. Brown to total 10.6 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 97th percentile among WRs.
A.J. Brown has compiled significantly more air yards this season (132.0 per game) than he did last season (104.0 per game).
With a RATE1-RATE2 point growth in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, A.J. Brown has been more prominently relied on in his team's pass attack.
In regards to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Eagles grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year.
A.J. Brown has totaled a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (108.0) this season than he did last season (80.0).

Favors Under

The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Eagles offense to be the most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.83 seconds per snap.
Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (just 31.9 per game) this year.
This year, the stout Kansas City Chiefs defense has surrendered a measly 59.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 4th-best rate in the league.
The Chiefs pass defense has displayed strong efficiency against WRs this year, conceding 7.08 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-fewest in the league.