A.J. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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A.J. Brown

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 65.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 70.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 65.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 138.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
A.J. Brown has run fewer routes this year (92.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (78.7%).
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to accrue 7.8 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile among WRs.
A.J. Brown has put up a monstrous 101.0 air yards per game this year: 96th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a big 17-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 2nd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 48.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New York Giants pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against WRs this year, conceding 7.89 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-least in the league.
The New York Giants have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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