A.J. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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A.J. Brown

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 64.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 65.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 64.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 7th-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.58 seconds per play.
A.J. Brown has been less involved as a potential target this season (91.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (78.7%).
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to garner 7.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 80th percentile among wideouts.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line ranks as the best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing game stats across the board.
A.J. Brown has been among the top pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging an impressive 77.0 yards per game while ranking in the 95th percentile.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 3rd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 48.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in football.
A.J. Brown has put up quite a few less air yards this year (88.0 per game) than he did last year (103.0 per game).

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