A.J. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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A.J. Brown

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:56 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 72.5 (-102/-128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 68.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 72.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
A.J. Brown has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (90.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (78.7%).
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to accumulate 8.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 88th percentile among wideouts.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass game stats across the board.
A.J. Brown has been among the leading WRs in the league this year, averaging a terrific 77.0 yards per game while checking in at the 93rd percentile.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 49.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense this year: 5th-least in football.
A.J. Brown has totaled quite a few less air yards this year (89.0 per game) than he did last year (103.0 per game).
The New York Giants pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.1%) versus wideouts this year (63.1%).

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