A.J. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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A.J. Brown

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:26 AM EST

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 74.5 (+109/-138).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 74.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 74.5 @ -138.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to run the 7th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
A.J. Brown has been less involved as a potential target this season (89.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (77.9%).
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to accumulate 8.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among wideouts.
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all air attack stats across the board.
A.J. Brown has posted substantially more receiving yards per game (76.0) this season than he did last season (61.0).

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 49.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in the league.
A.J. Brown has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (88.0 per game) than he did last season (97.0 per game).

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