A.J. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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A.J. Brown

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 70.5 (+107/-141).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 72.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 70.5 @ -141.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
A.J. Brown has gone out for fewer passes this year (89.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (77.9%).
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to accumulate 9.3 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line ranks as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a big 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-least in football.
A.J. Brown has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (91.0 per game) than he did last season (97.0 per game).
The Indianapolis Colts defense has conceded the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 120.0) vs. wideouts this year.

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