A.J. Brown Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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A.J. Brown

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving TD

Houston Texans vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 4, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
A.J. Brown has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 34.6% this year, which ranks him in the 99th percentile among WRs.
A.J. Brown has notched a colossal 100.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a huge 13.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
The Houston Texans defense has conceded the 2nd-least TDs through the air in the NFL to WRs: 0.29 per game this year.
The Houston Texans cornerbacks profile as the 5th-best unit in football this year in pass coverage.

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